Broncos Football

Ron Raymond asked:


tampeders 2008 CFL Preview

 

Since 1996, the Stampeders have been considered a respectable football franchise, as they’ve had 8 winning season with only 4 losing ones. John Hufnagel played 12 years in the CFL and 2 years in the NFL with the Denver Broncos. Prior to his professional career as a Quarterback, Hufnagel had a 3 solid years at Penn State by going 26-3 SU as a QB starter. Since leaving as a player, Hufnagel been bouncing around the CFL and NFL in various assistant coaching position and from a handicapping perspective, you have to wonder what kind of “field general” decisions he will take in Calgary. If there’s one thing about Calgary, they are comfortable at the Quarterbacking position, as Henri “Hank” Burris is the penciled starter and they have a great back up in Dave Dickenson.

 

Football is a funny sport, as some teams are practically unbeatable in their own barn, but as soon as they get away from their home cooking, they turn into another football team. It’s amazing how playing in front of your home fans, makes teams play beyond their capabilities. As is the case in the Calgary Stampeders, as the Stamps are a horrible 12-34 SU the last 5 years on the road. It’s not like they are home warriors, but they do put up the W’s at McMahon Stadium with a 26-21-1 SU record Last 5 seasons.

 

The Stampeders seem to have problems starting quickly out of the gate on the Road during July games, as they are 8-18-1 SU on the road in July games since 1996. In fact, their last road win in July was Week #4 of the 2006 season, as they won 53-36 vs. Saskatchewan as a +3.5 point road underdog.

Calgary Stampeders 2007 Season Stats

Straight up Record: 7-11-1 (including playoffs)

Against the Spread Record: 9-10-0

O/U/P: 10 OVERS 9 UNDERS 0 PUSH

 

Home Record:

Straight up Record: 5-3-1 SU

ATS Record: 5-4-1 ATS

O/U/P Record: 7-2-0 (O/U/P)

 

Road Record:

Straight up Record: 2-8 SU

ATS Record: 4-6-0 ATS

O/U/P Record: 3-7-0 (O/U/P)

 

 

Last 2 Years: 19-20-0 (ATS) 18-20-1 (SU) 18-21-0 (O/U/P)

Last 3 Years: 30-27-1 (ATS) 29-28-1 (SU) 27-31-0 (O/U/P)

Last 4 Years: 37-38-1 (ATS) 33-42-1 (SU) 35-41-0 (O/U/P)

Last 5 Years: 45-48-1 (ATS) 38-55-1 (SU) 40-54-0 (O/U/P)

 

Vs. Division Opponents since 1996:

75-66-2 (ATS) 76-65-2 (SU) 66-75-2 (O/U/P)

 

Value Index

 

I came across this great quote about “Perception” and it goes like this; “Perception isn’t everything but it sure is convincing.” In sports betting perception is everything for the bookmaker; in fact, it’s one of their ruling guide on deciding to hang a number, as he can move a line based on perception of the publics feelings towards a game. Having said this, when you look at the Calgary Stampeders numbers, it’s easy to see why they like home cooking, but they are a below average team away from McMahon Stadium. In fact, since 1996, the Calgary Stampeders are 62-23-1 SU as a home favorite and have covered 45 of their 86 home games in this role. Not bad considering Home Faves have to win and cover the spread at the same time. Therefore, look for the value in the Stampeders as a Home Favorite in the 2008 campaign.

 

Here’s how the Stampeders did in certain betting circumstances since 1996.

 

Underdog: 52-55-1 (ATS) 33-75 (SU) 51-57-0 (O/U/P)

Favorite: 65-65-1 (ATS) 89-40-2 (SU) 63-66-2 (O/U/P)

Home Dog: 17-16-0 (ATS) 13-20 (SU) 12-21-0 (O/U/P)

Home Fave: 45-41-0 (ATS) 62-23-1 (SU) 38-46-2 (O/U/P)

Road Dog: 31-35-1 (ATS) 16-51 (SU) 35-32-0 (O/U/P)

Road Fave: 16-20 (ATS) 23-13-1 (SU) 21-16-0 (O/U/P)

 

Calgary Stampeders Head to Head Record vs. Each CFL Team

 

One of the great battles in football happens every Labor Day and it’s not the Steel workers vs. the Auto Car makers, it’s the Battle of Ontario and the Battle of Alberta. The Calgary Stampeders always host the Edmonton Eskimos each Labor day and as you can see from the Head to Head record, the Eskimos have the slight advantage in the Straight up department, but Calgary is the bettors best friend in the ATS role. The Stamps seem to have the Blue Bombers number, as they are 18-8 SU vs. the men in Blue and they tend to have high scoring games vs. the Alouettes, as the OVER is 16-8-0.

 

Team by Team Breakdown:

 

Vs. Edmonton: 23-20-0 (ATS) 20-23 (SU) 20-23-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Saskatchewan: 20-19-0 (ATS) 24-14-1 (SU) 19-20-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. B.C. Lions: 18-20-1 (ATS) 16-22-1 (SU) 15-22-2 (O/U/P)

Vs. Montreal : 10-14-0 (ATS) 9-15 (SU) 16-8-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Hamilton : 12-14-0 (ATS) 16-10 (SU) 12-14-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Toronto : 11-13-0 (ATS) 10-14 (SU) 11-13-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Winnipeg: 16-9-1 (ATS) 18-8 (SU) 14-12-0 (O/U/P)

 

 

Look ahead and Letdown Angles

 

One of the key angles of handicapping football games is the Look ahead and let down factor. Teams tend to overlook their current game when they have a big game on deck, or they tend to have an emotional let down after a high emotion win or game. It’s very hard in football to duplicate a great outing, so this is where most cappers find good value in betting football games.

 

Here’s a betting angle to consider when betting for and/or against the Calgary Stampeders.

 

The Calgary Stampeders get pumped before playing the Montreal Alouettes as they are 16-7 SU, but have an emotional letdown after their game vs. the Alouettes, as they are 8-15-1 SU.

 

Comment: The experts in the medicine field always say; “90% of the game is mental” and here’s a bit of proof of that way of thinking. Consider the Stampeders before they play the Montreal Alouettes and against them after they’ve played Montreal. Here are a few spots to consider them this season, play on the Calgary Stampeders on July 3rd and Sept 5th vs. Edmonton and against them on July 17th vs. Hamilton and Sept 20th vs. Toronto.

 

 



JULIO